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I've always thought Palpatine won because the scene was originally written and filmed with Anakin as witness to the entire battle and it was clear that Palpatine threw the fight for Anakin's benefit. I also thought it doesn't make sense for Palpatine to reveal himself to Anakin if he thought there was any chance for failure, i.e. being defeated by Mace. If so, he would have contrived to have Mace off Coruscant in the same way which he did Obi-Wan and presumably Yoda through his control of the CIS. Perhaps starting another incident on Haruun Kal.
But lately I've changed my mind, because it could be that Lucas deliberately removed Anakin from the scene to eliminate the idea that Palpatine threw the fight. Palpatine's entire plan is contingent upon Anakin becoming his apprentice and successor, and if Palpatine is as powerful as we're led to believe, the Chosen One is the only possible Sith that can become more powerful than him. Thus if Anakin turns down Palpatine, the Sith have absolutely peaked. Plus if Anakin refuses to turn, he will defeat Palpatine. Thus Palpatine made the calculated risk knowing he could lose to Mace because if Anakin didn't intervene, he already lost.
Palpatine also knew about the prophecy, and so possibly didn't believe that Mace could defeat him if the prophecy was true.
I also think that Mace and Yoda being able to defeat Palpatine is more poignant because it just makes Palpatine's victory at the end of Episode III that much more avoidable. He wasn't just some powerful Dark Lord that came in and completely annihilated everyone and won. He was vulnerable to the best that the good guys had, but still won through the personal weakness of Anakin, upon whom his plan was contingent. It wasn't a sure thing. If Palpatine would or could have won without Anakin, the tragedy is lessened.
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